332 
abio10 pgtw 081800
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
/Ocean/081800z-081900zjan2009//
rmks/
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 13.4s
69.2e is now located near 14.0s 70.2e, approximately 420 nm
south-southwest of Diego Garcia. Animated infrared satellite
imagery and a 081226z ssmis image continue to depict a rapidly
consolidating low-level circulation center (LLCC) with a defined
LLCC and multiple bands of deep convection wrapping into the
center. Previous ship reports and scatterometer data support
a 25-30 knot system with slp near 1002 mb. Upper-level analysis
indicates a generally favorable environment, although currently
hindered by moderate to high vertical wind shear (vws), with
good radial outflow and warm SST and high ocean heat content.
The LLCC is expected to track into lower vws within 12-24
hours and should also tap into the midlatitude westerly flow
to its south, resulting in improved poleward outflow which will
allow the system to strengthen to 35 knots. Maximum sustained
surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots. Minimum sea
level pressure is estimated to be near 1002 mb. Based on the
improved organization, tight banding, good radial outflow and
expected track into an improved environment, the potential
for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within
the next 24 hours remains good.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
Forecast team: Charlie//

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